Andrew Eccles for Variety

The 2023 Academy Awards are almost upon us and it is shaping up to be an unpredictable one. The only thing close to a sure-thing at this point is Everything Everywhere All at Once taking home Best Picture and even that could be ripe for a last minute upset.

A24’s little indie film that could leads the way with 11 nominations and even has all four major cast members up for acting awards. While The Daniels’s Kung Fu-inspired film is sure to have a big night, the 95th annual Academy Awards has one of the most stacked fields in recent memory and in most categories, it still feels like anybody’s game.

While all of the previous award shows leading up to this point (Golden Globes, BAFTAs, etc.) are a good indication for the likely winners, the Academy still tends to march to the beat of its own drum. While many of the favorites are likely to walk away with their little gold statues, the Academy might just blend in an upset that leads to either puzzled head-scratches or triumphant glee.

It wouldn't be the first time.

While The Academy has made massive changes in the past decade to infuse more diversity in race, gender, and opinion, old habits still tend to die hard and history is as good an indicator as any for who is likely to win big.

4. Best Actor- Brenden Fraser (The Whale)

Best Actor is probably the hardest to predict of all of the major awards. Neither of the three favorites (Colin Farrell, Brendan Fraser, Austin Butler) have been able to establish themselves as the front-runner and have essentially passed the baton back and forth for months so there isn’t really a true “upset” pick here.

While we’re due for a photo finish, somebody still has to win and at this point it seems like a two horse race. Colin Farrell is magnificent in The Banshees of Inisherin but his performance is under-stated and The Academy very rarely awards performances that aren’t over the top or involve physical transformations.

Since 2010, only three performers have won the Best Actor Award for playing a non-historical figure or not transforming their body. Playing “normal” guys has shown over time to not be buzzy enough for the Oscars and that trend is likely to continue this year.

So who does that leave?

Seven of the last ten winners for Best Actor came from portrayals of historical figures. Going by that logic, it would seem that Austin Butler would be the betting favorite, but there’s just one problem: The Academy tends not to reward younger actors.

While Rami Malek and Eddie Redmayne have both been young winners in the last decade (for playing Freddy Mercury and Stephen Hawking, respectively), they are still seen as massive upsets and are exceptions to the rule. Malek and Redmayne allegedly put on amazing campaigns and there is no indication that Butler is doing as much. However, Elvis Presley has a more profound cultural impact than both Mercury and Hawking and you could very well see The Academy award Butler for embodying a massive American icon and announce a new, young movie star to the world.

The smart money is on Brendan Fraser, though. No one loves a comeback story more than The Academy. When you impose a heartfelt comeback story with a massive physical transformation it practically guarantees you the golden statue. Fraser portrayed a grieving, 600 pound man in Darren Aronofsky’s The Whale and it seems like we’re still seeing pictures of his incredible transformation all over the internet. While the film was largely panned, Fraser’s performance was praised and seen as the largest (sorry) bright spot. The quality of the film could come back to bite Fraser but he is still the smart money pick. It wouldn’t be the first time the Academy looked past a weak movie to grant the Oscar to an unprecedented transformation.

3. Best Actress- Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh have traded blows like two heavyweight boxers throughout awards season. While Blanchett appears to be leading on the judge’s cards right now, Yeoh could likely land an upset knockout blow on Oscar Sunday.

In this writer’s humble opinion, Blanchett’s portrayal of Lydia Tar in Todd Field’s Tar is the performance of the year, but as we all know, the best doesn’t always win. Blanchett has history on the line too. With a win on Sunday, Blanchett could become only the third actress in history to win the Oscar for Best Actress three times (along with Frances McDormand and Katharine Hepburn). However, she is still only 53 years old (McDormand won her third at 64). The Academy might convince themselves that they can always award her later down the line for another role.

Plus, there’s a bit of pressure on the Oscars.

Only one POC in history has won the Academy Award for Best Actress. That woman was Halle Berry who won the award for 2002’s Monster's Ball. Michelle Yeoh in her campaign hasn’t let the voters forget this, either. In a now deleted Instagram post, Yeoh posted a Vogue article titled “It’s Been Over Two Decades Since We’ve Had a Non-White Best Actress Winner: Will that Change in 2023?”

The video stirred up some controversy and may have even violated some Academy rules, but it is doubtful it comes to anything significant. With Berry announced as one of the presenters at Sunday’s awards, don’t be surprised if she hands the Oscar for “Best Actress in a Leading Role” to Yeoh.

With the exception of the diversity issue, Yeoh is still a beloved actress entering what is likely the twilight of her career after making a comeback. As mentioned above, the Academy adores a comeback story and loves even more to reward actors for years of hard work. Plus, she is still incredible in Everything Everywhere and is more than deserving of the award on that merit alone.

This award is still a toss-up, but don’t be surprised if Yeoh ends up walking away with the upset victory.

2. Best Director- Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

It’s hard to believe that arguably the greatest director of the past 50 years is an underdog to a directing duo, who before this, was best known for making a film about a farting corpse, but that is exactly what Steven Spielberg is.

That is not intended as a dig at The Daniels as they have been more than deserving of all the hardware they’ve been given for Everything Everywhere All at Once. The duo has been dominating the awards circuit most recently winning the Critic’s Choice and DGA awards for Best Director. Only eight times in the DGA’s previous 74-year award history has its winner not gone on to win the Oscar.

However, if anyone can buck the trend, it’s Steven Spielberg.

Spielberg’s recent film The Fabelmans is the stuff that Oscar voters’ dreams are made of. At its surface, it's a film about “the magic of cinema” and how one of the greatest directors of all time was molded by his childhood trauma and found healing through filmmaking. These types of films have been everywhere on the awards circuit for the past few years and have had Oscar success. Alfonso Cuaron even went on to win Best Director for his film Roma (another memoiristic film) in 2019.

Spielberg has always made a habit of tugging on the heartstrings and The Fabelmans is no exception. Could that patented Spielbergian magic be enough to help him pull off the upset?

There’s also the history of it all.

Spielberg would secure a third Best Director Oscar with a win. That would tie him for the second most wins all time right behind his hero John Ford who won four.

You know what else?

MR. FORD CAMEOED AT THE END OF THE FABELMANS.

You have to imagine some Academy voters are salivating at the idea of hearing a Spielberg speech about his love of cinema and chasing down his hero. It’s a moment that, for some, might be too good to pass up.

The Daniels are still the favorites and are likely to win, but don’t be surprised if Spielberg is able to conjure that magic that we know and love him for.

1. All Quiet on the Western Front- Best Picture

In the open, it was mentioned that the only thing close to a sure-thing at this point was Everything Everywhere winning for Best Picture. The film has dominated the awards circuit, after all. But if there’s one film that could come out of nowhere like a horse down the stretch at the Kentucky Derby, it’s Netflix’s remake of All Quiet on the Western Front.

All Quiet has come out of nowhere in awards season and hasn’t been able to truly compete against Everything Everywhere due to some eligibility issues. All Quiet did take home the top prize at the BAFTAs and it has generated some major buzz since.

For one, The Academy LOVES war movies. 16 of them have won Best Picture over the years (including the original All Quiet in 1930). You have to also keep in mind that while The Academy has diversified itself a ton, there are still plenty of older voters who might see Everything Everywhere as a junky, “pop film.” After all, The Academy hasn’t always been too kind to Kung Fu-inspired movies over the years and voters might decide to stick with ole reliable and go with the war film.

Is it necessarily likely? No. It’s probably more likely that Everything Everywhere takes the top prize while All Quiet settles for Best International Feature. No remake has ever won the Oscar for Best Picture and the film has no actors nominated. For context, Everything Everywhere has four actors nominated.

Could it happen, though? Of course.

It’s certainly still something to keep an eye on and would be an incredible feather in the cap for Netflix if the film is able to pull off the upset.